Strategy Scorecard, July 19: Every Win Rate Below 50%

There is no way to dress up this roll-up, so we won't try. As of July 19, not one of the eight strategies in Formion's live trades-history tracking is printing a win rate above 50%. The best of the group, GMGN Paper, sits at 48.7%. The weakest, Trend Shifts, is at 25.8%. These are tracked results from live trade histories — not projections, not promises — and part of publishing them is publishing them when they look like this.

The full board

The board splits into rough tiers. GMGN Paper is close to a coin flip, and it is worth flagging that this one runs on paper fills — clean data, but not the same as live execution. OI Surge Bot and Order-Book Walls, both driven by observable market structure (open-interest spikes and resting liquidity), hold the low 40s. The middle band — Market Majors v2, Bias Map Confluence, Volatility v2 — clusters tightly between 35.6% and 38.9%. Then there is a gap down to Funding Fade at 33.6% and Trend Shifts at 25.8%, which is the number that demands the most scrutiny. A trend-following system winning one trade in four is either living off a small number of large winners or it is simply not working in this tape. Without PnL attached, we cannot tell you which — and we won't guess.

What this snapshot can and cannot tell you

That last point deserves its own section, because this roll-up is unusually thin. Trade counts and PnL percentages are not available in this snapshot for any of the eight strategies. That matters in both directions.

It cuts the other way too. We are not going to claim that the sub-30% systems are secretly fine because "trend strategies always have low win rates." That is sometimes true and often an excuse. The honest position is narrower: the hit rates are weak across the board, the profitability picture is currently unobservable, and we will keep publishing both as the data fills in. What we can say is that when every strategy in a diversified set — momentum, funding, volatility, order-flow — lands under 50% at the same time, the common factor is more likely the market regime than eight independent failures.

The tape behind the numbers

The day's notable movers point at what that regime looks like. The 24-hour leaderboard is dominated by small, low-priced names: TLM up 56.47% to $0.002031, BANK up 54.91% to $0.1058, and ZBT up 22.44% to $0.1004. When the biggest moves are concentrated in sub-dollar tickers, capital is rotating fast through thin books rather than building sustained trends in liquid names. That is a hostile environment for most of what this board tracks: trend systems get chopped by moves that reverse before confirmation, funding fades get run over by momentum that persists longer than positioning suggests it should, and majors-focused strategies sit out the action entirely because the action isn't in majors. It does not excuse the numbers. It does explain their shape — weakness that is broad rather than isolated to one model.

Track the full strategy histories, trade by trade, at app.formion.ai.